If you have been watching GFL Stock Environmental lately, you know it has rarely been this interesting to follow. Shares closed near $41.79 on the NYSE on September 24, 2026, well below the 52-week high, yet buyout speculation keeps the story alive.
The Miami Beach-based waste company raised its full-year outlook twice, closed the SECURE Waste acquisition on September 1, and now faces questions about debt and dilution. Analysts generally lean positive, with average price targets around $52, but views differ widely.
This guide walks through the latest quarterly earnings, the take-private talks, the market cap, and the risks, so you can judge for yourself where GFL stock may be headed.
Where Is GFL Stock Trading Right Now?
Short answer: GFL Environmental closed at about $41.79 on the NYSE on September 24, 2026, per Morningstar. That gave it a market value of roughly $18.3 billion.
Live quotes change every second, so check your brokerage or an exchange feed before trading. Here are the reference points from late September:
| Metric | Latest reading |
|---|---|
| NYSE price (Sept 24, 2026) | About $41.79 |
| Toronto price (Sept 21, 2026) | About C$59.94 |
| 52-week range (NYSE) | $33.33 to $48.03 |
| Shares outstanding | About 436 million |
| Market capitalization | About $18.3 billion |
| Trailing dividend yield | About 0.15% |
| Estimated next earnings date | Around November 4, 2026 (unconfirmed) |
The shares trade under the ticker GFL on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange. The company lists them as subordinate voting shares, and the Toronto quote is in Canadian dollars.
The stock sits in the lower half of its 52-week range. That reflects a recent selloff, which CEO Patrick Dovigi acknowledged in a September 16 Bloomberg interview. He said it has drawn large infrastructure and core funds as buyers.
What Does GFL Environmental Actually Do?
Short answer: GFL Environmental Inc. is North America’s fourth-largest diversified environmental services company, providing solid waste collection, transfer, recycling and disposal across Canada and 19 U.S. states.
Founded in 2007 and public since 2020, it has grown largely through acquisitions. The company recently moved its executive headquarters from Ontario to Miami Beach, Florida. Its business is built on recurring municipal and commercial contracts, which is why investors often treat waste companies as defensive.
What Did the Latest Earnings Show?
Short answer: Second-quarter 2026 results, reported July 29, were strong on growth and cash flow, though GAAP profit was negative.
The highlights, in Canadian dollars as the company reports them: stockanalysis.com
- Revenue of about $1.95 billion, up 16.3%, including 6.1% from core pricing and 6.4% organic growth.
- Adjusted EBITDA of $591.2 million, up 14.8%, at a 30.4% margin.
- Adjusted free cash flow of $236.7 million, versus $137.1 million a year earlier.
- A net loss from continuing operations of $162.6 million, while adjusted net income was $67.8 million.
Management raised full-year guidance for the second time this year. It now expects revenue of $7.51 to $7.53 billion, adjusted EBITDA near $2.29 billion, and adjusted free cash flow near $900 million. That guidance excludes the SECURE acquisition.
Management also flagged softer construction and demolition volumes and elevated diesel costs. Those are real headwinds, and they explain why reported margin slipped slightly even as underlying margin improved.
Why Is the Take-Private Story Moving the Stock?
Short answer: GFL has received unsolicited interest from multiple parties, and its board formed a special committee to review any discussions. Nothing is confirmed.
Reports of buyout interest first pushed shares up as much as 11% in Toronto on July 3. On August 28, Seeking Alpha relayed a CTFN report that bidders had floated $50 to $55 a share and that offers were due in the third week of September. GFL has not confirmed those figures.
On September 16, Dovigi said he would consider offers at a higher valuation than where the stock has traded. There is no announced deal as of today.
Three points shape the odds:
- Debt is a real obstacle. A July report put total debt near $7.1 billion before SECURE, and the acquisition added a new US$1 billion term loan.
- Parts of GFL are already valued privately. In 2025, Apollo and BC Partners bought control of the environmental services division, and Energy Capital Partners took a minority stake in Green Infrastructure Partners at a C$4.25 billion valuation.
- The founder matters. Any buyout would likely need Dovigi to stay invested.
If a deal never arrives, some of the premium built into the price could fade. If one does, the price would depend on the terms.
How Does the SECURE Waste Acquisition Change GFL Stock?
Short answer: It adds scale in western Canada and energy-linked waste, but also debt, new shares and more commodity exposure.
GFL closed the SECURE Waste Infrastructure deal on September 1, 2026. It was funded with revolver capacity, about 75.1 million new GFL shares, and the US$1 billion term loan (SOFR plus 200 basis points, roughly 5% after swaps). More than 2,000 SECURE employees joined GFL.
The upside is scale and management’s stated plan to accelerate its multi-year targets from the 2025 Investor Day. The trade-offs are dilution and added cyclicality, since SECURE’s energy waste business is tied to oil-patch activity. Management has said it will update its outlook now that the deal has closed, so the next earnings report deserves close attention.
What Do Analysts Say About GFL Stock?
Short answer: The consensus leans Buy, with average targets in the low $50s, but views are not unanimous.
- An S&P Global poll of 21 analysts, shown on StockAnalysis, put the average target near $52, with a high-to-low span of roughly $41 to $66.
- TipRanks recently counted 20 Buy, 5 Hold and 1 Sell rating.
- Scotiabank raised its target to $56 (Outperform) on July 31.
- CIBC raised its Toronto target to C$82 on August 28.
- Barclays reinstated coverage at Overweight on September 2.
- JPMorgan holds an Underweight rating with a $41 target, roughly where the stock trades today.
Targets are opinions, and some may already assume a buyout premium. Treat them as a range of views, not a promise.
Is GFL Stock Overvalued? A Look at the Numbers
The classic price-to-earnings ratio is not very useful here. GAAP earnings per share are negative (trailing roughly minus $0.56 to $0.58), and Morningstar’s normalized P/E is above 60, which mostly reflects heavy depreciation and acquisition costs.
Cash-flow measures tell the more relevant story. Dividing the roughly $18.3 billion equity value into guided free cash flow of about C$900 million is not a clean comparison, since it mixes currencies and excludes SECURE. But it hints at why bulls see value and why bears point to leverage.
The dividend is symbolic, at about 0.15% to 0.16%, paid quarterly. Nobody buys GFL for income. The case rests on growth, pricing power and possible deleveraging.
Is GFL Stock a Buy, Hold or Sell?
A fair framing is the bull case against the bear case.
Bull case:
- Industry-leading revenue growth and steady pricing power
- Guidance raised twice in 2026
- Improving free cash flow
- Possible buyout at a premium
- A share price well below its 52-week high
Bear case:
- Heavy debt, now higher after SECURE
- GAAP losses
- Dilution from new shares
- Exposure to construction volumes, diesel and energy cycles
- Downside if buyout hopes fade
Investors with a long horizon tend to focus on cash flow and leverage. Shorter-term traders are watching the buyout headlines. A financial advisor can help you weigh this against your own risk tolerance.
Frequently Asked Questions
GFL stock price prediction: where could it go?
No one can predict it reliably. Analyst targets cluster around $50 to $56, with a wide range from about $41 to $66, and a take-private offer could reset the price. Downside risks include leverage and slower construction volumes.
What is the GFL stock price target?
The average analyst target is about $52 per share (S&P Global, 21 analysts). Scotiabank sits at $56 and JPMorgan at $41, while CIBC’s Toronto target is C$82.
What is the latest GFL stock news?
GFL closed the SECURE Waste acquisition on September 1, 2026. On September 16, the CEO said he is open to take-private offers at a higher valuation. The board’s special committee is reviewing interest, and nothing has been announced.
Is GFL stock a buy or sell?
Analysts lean toward Buy, but the answer depends on your risk tolerance. The bull case is growth and buyout potential. The bear case is high debt and GAAP losses.
Where can I find GFL Environmental investor relations information?
GFL posts earnings releases, webcasts and filings on its investor relations site at investors.gflenv.com. Regulatory filings are also on SEC EDGAR and SEDAR+.
Where can I follow GFL Environmental news?
Company announcements appear on the investor relations site and through PR Newswire. Industry coverage from Waste Dive, Waste360, Bloomberg and The Globe and Mail also tracks the company closely.
What to Watch Next
- Any announcement from the special committee about a sale
- The next earnings report, estimated around early November
- Updated guidance including SECURE
- Debt reduction progress
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